Ch-ch-ch -changes in China
via flickr /Artwork: designslinger]
I read an amazing article this week in Business Week by Dexter Roberts, about China and
the gigantic population shift that will occur in the next few decades. It's not the first time I've heard, or read about people leaving the Chinese countryside for the city. I'd just never seen so many figures compiled in one article and found the numbers incredible. It means construction will continue to boom, especially since the government is implementing a $586 billion stimulus program.
Beijing, kevindooley via flickr /Artwork: designslinger]
The Chinese are moving in droves to established urban areas, as well as new communities
that look like suburban Orange County, California. In the next decade or so, 350 million rural residents will leave rural areas to live in cities; that's the entire population of the United States. By 2025, according to the article, 220 Chinese cities will likely have populations of more than 1 million people, which means today's urban population of 600 million will grow to 1 billion. It is the largest urbanization of a country, culture or society in human history. The consequences could be dire.
The amount of construction required to house all these people, and supply the basic
infrastructure needed to support all these new residences, is mind boggling. The challenge will be in how the government decides to deal with the issue. They can call on architects, engineers and city planners to produce one of the most modern and sustainable living environments in history. Or, government officials will do what politicians have done for years and go for the cheap, quick and easy (like the monolithic public housing projects constructed in the U.S. and Europe in the 60s and 70s) and deal with the consequences later. Whichever path they choose, the face of China is going to change and it will be fascinating to watch.
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